24 reports · updated daily

Crypto market analysis — daily research notes

Original analytical reports on public crypto data. Cross-source signals, derivatives positioning, on-chain flows, developer activity. No predictions, no signals.

What you'll find here

Original analytical research on public cryptocurrency market data, published daily. Every report begins with a specific cross-source disagreement we noticed in the data — on-chain activity contradicting price action, derivatives positioning rejecting retail sentiment, developer momentum fading while a token rallies — and works through what the public data actually shows. No predictions, no buy/sell signals, no price targets. The job is to describe; readers draw their own conclusions.

We pull from seven independent sources: CoinGecko, DeFiLlama, Binance Futures, GitHub, Fear & Greed Index, FRED, and crypto news feeds. Every figure traces to a named source and the timestamp at which we captured it. Edited by Jonathan Reed; full process on the methodology page.

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Latest analysis

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Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

Bitcoin Volatility Analysis: 1.07% vs Risky Caps (May 2026)

Bitcoin volatility analysis shows BTC at 1.07% 30-day realized vol, below the risky large-cap basket and paired with 59.59% dominance. Read the stress split.

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Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

Bitcoin Market Structure: Movers Split 62.91% to -13.77% (May 2026)

Bitcoin market structure split sharply: NEAR gained 62.91% while BCH fell 13.77%, even as BTC dominance held 59.51%. Read the tape.

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Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

Bitcoin Breadth Analysis: 30-Day Drift vs 7-Day Movers (May 2026)

Bitcoin breadth analysis shows BTC down 2.96% in 30 days, dominance at 59.51%, and 7-day movers split. Read the breadth signal.

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Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

Bitcoin Momentum Analysis: 0.94% Vol, 77591 Price (May 2026)

Bitcoin momentum analysis: BTC closed at 77591 with 0.94% 30-day realized vol and fear still dominant. Read the structure gap.

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Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

Bitcoin Regime Analysis: 49.6% Drawdown Meets 0.94% Vol (May 2026)

Bitcoin regime analysis: BTC sits 49.6% below its 2025 peak while 30-day vol is 0.94%. Read the regime signal in structure, not noise.

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Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

Bitcoin Trend Analysis: 1.84% vs. 1.21 pp (May 2026)

Bitcoin trend analysis shows BTC up 1.84% in 30 days while dominance rose 1.21 pp to 59.61%. Read the structure shift.

Bitcoin Trend Persistence: 19 of 30 Closes Above Average (April 2026)
Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

Bitcoin Trend Persistence: 19 of 30 Closes Above Average (April 2026)

Bitcoin trend persistence: BTC closed above its 30-day average on 19 of 30 days in April, with 1.51% realized vol. Read the regime.

The Recovery Path: How Long BTC Took to Reclaim Prior Highs This Year
Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

The Recovery Path: How Long BTC Took to Reclaim Prior Highs This Year

Bitcoin’s 2026 recoveries were measured peak by peak, with reclaim times, drawdown depth, and market structure context across BTC and ETH.

Bitcoin’s Worst 12-Month Drawdown Was Shallower Than It Looked
Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

Bitcoin’s Worst 12-Month Drawdown Was Shallower Than It Looked

Bitcoin’s 12-month price path shows its worst drawdown, how long it took to form, and how today’s pullback compares with that range.

Why Bitcoin’s realized volatility is compressing despite active price swings
Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

Why Bitcoin’s realized volatility is compressing despite active price swings

BTC’s 30-day realized volatility fell to 1.69% while price still ranged from 65,970 to 78,244, with breadth and derivatives mixed.

DeFi TVL Analysis: ether.fi Liquid Fell 15.9% in 24h (Apr 2026)
Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

DeFi TVL Analysis: ether.fi Liquid Fell 15.9% in 24h (Apr 2026)

DeFi TVL analysis of ether.fi Liquid: TVL fell 15.9% to $315.9M in 24h while total DeFi TVL rose 6.03% over 30 days. Read the regime shift.

How Bitcoin’s 90-day volatility compare is framing the current regime
Bitcoin’s 12-Month Market Structure

How Bitcoin’s 90-day volatility compare is framing the current regime

BTC’s 90-day realized volatility is 1.69%, still below its 90-day-prior reading; the 1-year comparison shows a mostly contracting, mixed regime.